Now let us imagine for a moment a politician who makes the cult of his personality the fulcrum of his communication.
That call to himself all that is good and leave all that is bad to others.
That he presents his whole family (at least the part aligned with his image of greatness) on the podium and in key or important parts of his administration.
That publicly declares that he is never wrong.
That says it all and the opposite of everything by refusing any fact check.
Who calls anyone who criticizes him false, betrayer, or worse.
Who refuses to declare that he would accept an election result that did not see him as the winner.
Who uses the nation’s symbolic places (as let’s say the white house) for his campaign and image.
No, I’m not talking about Kim Yong Un and the North Korean Communist Party Convention
but the Republican convention that just ended.
The real question I ask myself, how many people realize that certain scenes are exactly the opposite of what the Republican Party in the United States should represent?
That the cult of personality, the denial of reality, nepotism are the opposite of a democracy?
The Democratic convention was anything but exciting, indeed I would say boring, the only things of value were probably the interventions of real Republicans who could not share the Trumpist drift.
But the Republican one was terrifying.
And I am not talking about the demonization with fake assumptions or claims over Baiden positions, I heard from not only Trump but also Pence and Trump Son, the other Trump Son, the trump Son’s wife, The Trump preferred daughter, the other Trump daughters (any nepotism suspect here?) false allegations on Biden that are normal in a political campaign where the truth is just a, not a welcomed companion. But mostly I heard praise and glory on the one and only Donald J Trump, nothing on actual fact or serious analysis on the future. But the form and the content were not on GOP but on him. For them, he is the source and the aim. And anyone who disagrees is morally deprecable. because he is the truth, the light, the good.
Obviously the electoral base Trump relies on has no eyes but for him, after all, the cult of personality serves this purpose, to give a miraculous subject to which to place one’s hopes uncritically also because in return one receives exactly what one wants to hear.
After this show, I am even more convinced that the possibility of violent drift after the US elections is a solid possibility.
Whether Trump wins or Trump loses the open wound in the US democratic institutions or the Great Old Party (GOP) will not heal quickly.
Some elections are scarier than others
Imagine a modern western country where the president in the wake of elections starts to say that
- will not recognise the victory of the antagonist
- questions the possible result well in advance if the election is based on a mechanism that would make the other party’s voters more likely to vote
- despite the uncontrolled development of the pandemic continues to say that everything is fine
- against millions of infected people, he takes it out on internet apps as TikTok
- blame everything on either an eastern country or the president who preceded it.
- He declares publicly that he will never apologize even if in error because it is not his negotiating technique…
- robbing popular protests and tensions as an activity of thugs and criminals
- ….
What country is it? You will tell me clearly the Belarus of Lucashenko … the last European dictator.
No, it is the president of the most armed and economically powerful state in the world, Donald J Trump.
The forthcoming presidential elections are already distorting the democratic tradition of the United States, which will be difficult to repair in the short term, and the damage caused to the country’s image and the international rule of law will remain for a long time to come.
Although they are not elections in my country, I am afraid of the possible global repercussions, and the tensions that will explode shortly.
The spasmodic search for a tactical approach that masks the obvious failings of the American administration, at least on the covid front, has led the United States to seek a narrative in which China is the source of all evil.
The American political dynamic has always needed the villain on duty since the USSR was no longer available, Cuba was used over time, and then the Middle East and the Islamic fundamentalist movements moved to the chessboard, so as not to miss Iran and, of course, China. All this was often seasoned, for the appetite of public opinion, with quite imaginative assumptions. Think of the long-standing accusations against Iran (Shiite) of fomenting and financing Sunni terrorism.
Under elections it is normal for a tactical attitude linked to internal political dynamics to take hold, but the 4 years of the Trump administration have been dedicated, to a large extent, to short-term tactics aimed at keeping up an endless electoral campaign whose cornerstones have been:
- the demonization of the previous administration
- the demonization of any form of criticism, even internal.
- the rhetoric of greatness regardless of reality
Added to this is a personality cult that had not yet been seen in the United States and which is reminiscent of certain Latin American behaviour.
Moreover, from the very beginning the Trump presidency has meant a special way of communication:
From the non-existent crowd to his inauguration in the sun that appeared when he started speaking (regardless the truth and videos shos the pouring rain) the anecdotes are endless.
Not to mention the constant lie related to popular vote.
Just for your understanding in the USA winning the popular vote does not means win the elections, the complicated system allows the victory in the electoral colleges but defeat in the popular vote has happened in Trump election 4 years ago.
But worth to mention his epic interviews that in many ways have been the subject of debate (and irony) by many detractors. The last one I can think of carried out by Jonathan Swan for Axios is terrifying, considering the power of the subject we are talking about.
Randomly provided data, wrong references, meaningless statistics and inconsistent answers were the leitmotif.
But any fact check on his figure is considered an affront by his supporters.
Now I have no doubt that the reader who feels related to that specific political movement will feel indignant and ready for the insult, and it is certainly not to them that I turn my thoughts, it would be wasted effort.
The reason for my fear, however, is not so much the tactical attacks against TikTok or the claim that there are also good people among the white supremacists. These are issues that can be politically certain but do not frighten me.
The main point is the search by the right-wing pro-Trump for a reason for confrontation that justifies possible actions of force in function of a possible electoral defeat or protests following an unclear victory.
The uprisings linked to the death of George Floyd were an interesting test, for the first time on US soil federal agents were seen without recognition and insignia making arbitrary arrests widely documented (and equally denied or minimized by the administration). We expect this in many Latin American countries, or in Belarus but not on US soil.
The radicalisation of the clash and the use of force becomes worrying if we analyse a context where we see the systematic attack on voting modalities that take into account the difficulties linked to covid-19. One does not need to be a genius to understand its two main pillars:
On the one hand it is aligned with the anti-Covid narrative of the administration (it is not the only one, from Bolsonaro to Lukashenko deniers abound on all sides), on the other hand it is an operation that goes to hit the most cautious segment of the population about the pandemic that, coincidentally, is mainly not aligned with Trump’s thought.
The current attack on the mail ballot and, at the same time, the American postal service are a clear demonstration of this.
It is clearly a tactical move, with complete disregard for the medium and long term consequences, and at the same time it opens up worrying scenarios.
1) Let’s suppose that Trump does NOT win the mail ballot elections in large quantities:
The controversy built up at the moment against the mail ballot would give him the opportunity to shout fraud as confirmation of what he claimed before the election. If his reaction was not to recognise the outcome, a violent drift is not a secondary scenario. The question would be where do the armed forces (and in particular the national guard) face a confrontation between an elected president and an “ex” who does not recognize the outcome.
2) Let’s now suppose that Trump wins the Mail Ballot elections in large numbers:
In light of the attacks on the postal service, it is not unlikely that a slice of the population will feel defrauded and exacerbate the protest, which would probably be forcibly suppressed. There is no precedent to indicate that Trump is willing to negotiate on his absoluteness.
3) So let’s assume that Trump does NOT win the election without an email ballot:
In this scenario even Trump would find it difficult to justify not recognizing the winner. With a but, in the past, Trump has repeatedly expressed conspiracy theories that Democrats had cheated by voting corpses, illegals, moving people from county to county to vote several times and so on. Of course, all without a shred of evidence, evidence or statistical result, but these are not of interest to Trump or his electorate.
4) Finally, let’s assume that Trump largely wins the election without mail ballots:
we are in a situation similar to point 2, but with much stronger tensions since the other side could really feel in a Venezuelan scenario. In this case bipartisan violence would be extremely likely.
This situation in the United States is unprecedented, this level of radicalization and contempt for the rules of civil coexistence shown by Trump and his entourage are unique.
Unfortunately making predictions is difficult, also because it is not very easy to decipher what Trump wants or says, to understand what I mean watch this video
I hope that everything is going well, of course, but at the moment the outlook is not exactly the best.
It do really seems this 2020 is the perfect storm.
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